Methods & Concepts

The Paris Agreement temperature goal requires translation into global greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.  The total volume of remaining greenhouse gas emissions that can be emitted into the atmosphere while containing global temperature rise (termed the global “carbon budget”) is projected by complex climate models, and is subject to high levels of uncertainty. 

When trying to understand what Paris Alignment means for a region, country, sector or, in the case of this project, the Secunda and Sasolburg facilities and their value chains, this uncertainty is further compounded. The first key contributor to this additional uncertainty links to the politics involved in dividing up the budget between states at different levels of development, who come from different starting points, and have different historical responsibilities for the stock of emissions already in the atmosphere. The second arises in trying to establish the proportion of the global and national effort, once established, that the facilities and their value chains will need to take.

With decarbonisation, the journey is as important as the end point. Greenhouse gas emissions are cumulative in the atmosphere, and so the total emissions over time is important. Slow and partial decarbonisation over a century would have very different implications to rapid and total decarbonisation over a decade.

There is also a spatial element. Climate change is a global problem. The impacts of greenhouse gases are not linked to where they are emitted – nor are their impacts uniformly experienced. Often those least responsible for emissions are most adversely affected by climate change. At the same time, very rapid decarbonisation can also have adverse economic and social impacts as our systems transition. Finding the balance between the pace of transition in different locations and sectors, and managing and adapting to the negative impacts of climate change, has to be grappled with at a global level.

Global political decarbonisation signals – together with those from climate science and analysis – are further translated through markets, organisations, technologies and behaviours. This translation may increase or decrease the pace and extent of decarbonisation at particular points over time.  Markets work in non-linear ways, bringing in the potential to rapidly ‘tip’, potentially accelerating decarbonisation.

Understanding South Africa’s decarbonization trajectory 

South Africa’s decarbonisation ambition is articulated in two key policy documents which have been submitted to the UNFCCC: 

• The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which commits the country to an absolute greenhouse gas emissions target range through to 2030.
• The Low Emissions Development Plan (LEDS), which states an aspiration to set a target for net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.

Despite indications in LEDS, South Africa has not formally committed to a long-term national emissions budget, nor to a net-zero date. It has also not yet established Sectoral Emissions Targets as intended under the draft Climate Change Bill currently being considered by Parliament. Beyond the NDC targets for 2030, therefore, there is therefore no policy certainty about a trajectory for the country or as a consequence the liquid fuels / petrochemicals sector.

Introducing further uncertainty, the NDC does not provide a single decarbonisation ambition, but provides an upper and lower bound for a budget, of between 350 and 420 MtCO2e up to 2030. Analysis by the  argues that the lower bound of South Africa’s current NDC reflects a fair contribution to the international ambition, although it requires adequate support in the way of international finance, technology and capacity building assistance.  

Looking towards the longer term, some indication of what South Africa’s total emissions budget could be is provided by the ESRG and the National Business Initiative (NBI), who indicate that a carbon budget for the remaining decades to 2050 of 7-9Gt reflects a fair contribution to the international mitigation effort. This, together with the net zero aspiration of the LEDS, suggests that domestic decarbonisation policy will only become more ambitious going forward. The models also provide some indication of what might be required for the petrochemicals sector in a Paris-aligned future. 

Despite the lack of certainty of exactly what will be required, providing a broad understanding of pace and extent of decarbonisation that will likely be required of the emitting assets of interest in this study – the ‘direction of travel’ – is considered critical for guiding current decision making. As the decarbonisation transition progresses, it will be important to evaluate how the facilities and value chain are progressing against decarbonisation ambition (which itself will be evolving). Techno-economic modelling will be critical here. There is therefore a linkage between decarbonisation modelling and ambition. Decarbonisation modelling informs policy, which determines ambition.