andand Decarbonisation of the South African economy requires intervention across all sources of emissions, but the pace and depth of reductions for each emitting activity will differ, depending on factors including the emissions profile of the activity, maturity of available decarbonisation technologies, the location of activities in their value chains, and ease of behavioural shift. 

Various techno-economic modelling approaches have been developed over time to advance our understanding of decarbonisation, taking into account these factors. These models typically consider: 

• Sources of emissions across the economy or sector.
• How emissions could change over time in the absence of targeted action (sometimes called a baseline or business as usual scenario).
• The impact of individual actions to reduce emissions against a baseline emissions trajectory.
• The potential socio-economic implications of mitigation, typically represented by a selection of high-level indicators such as employment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Such techno-economic models provide a critical tool for helping to understand the pace and depth of the decarbonisation challenge and the direction of travel required.

Two existing South African modelling projects, that have played an important role in informing South Africa’s policy discourse, were chosen to assist in understanding possible Paris-aligned futures for the petrochemicals value chain in the context of South Africa’s decarbonisation. 

• That developed by the University of Cape Town Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) in support of work conducted to support the update of South Africa’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
• That developed by BCG for the National Business Initiative (NBI) Just Transition pathway study.

Click on the buttons below for a deep dive into the modelling resources explored and how they considered the decarbonisation of the petrochemicals value chain in more depth: