Methods & Concepts

The Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) at UCT has done work for the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and Environment (DFFE) and subsequently the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) exploring net zero decarbonisation pathways for South Africa that represent a possible fair contribution to the Paris Agreement temperature goals. These analyses are undertaken using a linked energy system and economic model (South African TIMES energy model (SATIM) plus Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)). While the latest work considering net zero pathways is not yet in the public domain (it is still undergoing internal approvals by the PCC), the project team had access to the model inputs and outputs associated with the PCC net zero work, as well as the opportunity to engage with the ESRG team, and so considered these analyses suitable for inclusion in the study. The ESRG team has indicated willingness to provide the modelling data outputs to interested parties. The linked models assess developmental impacts through the CGE, demonstrating that the economy is robust to the pathways using high-level indicators.

The ESRG models over 60 different pathways that could all be considered compatible with the Paris-aligned temperature target. The scenarios follow one of two growth trajectories (reference growth and high growth); and have different assumptions about the extent to which energy efficiency interventions and other existing policies are implemented

This scenario mix is further differentiated in different assumptions about the extent to which South Africa exports green hydrogen and associated products (in the form of green iron and steel and hydrogen in the form of ammonia), the size of natural carbon sinks, and whether decarbonisation policies and measures are implemented.

Details around the basic approach to the ESRG modelling can be found in (UCT, 2021) together with the forthcoming report from UCT ESRG.

An assessment of the full scenario set revealed sufficient commonalities between scenarios in respect of Secunda and Sasolburg and their related activities to not distinguish between them for the purposes of this study.