Transitioning SA's Petrochemical Value Chain

Improve

‘Improve’ strategies are designed to reduce per-kilometre emissions intensity of transport, primarily through technological interventions. These include switching to electric vehicles (EVs) which include hybrid (HEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), lower-carbon and cleaner fuels, and efficient driving and anti-idling practices.

The switch to EVs is the primary driver of decarbonisation considered by South Africa’s Paris aligned decarbonisation modelling studies, in line with international trends. These studies illustrate a rapid uptake of EVs from the early 2030s onwards, based on the assumption that EVs reach price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEs) around this time.

~2035-2040 is the most disruptive period, with ~55%-90 of the vehicle fleet (private and public) replaced by EVs by 2040. Freight road transport sees a similar decline, with some heavy-duty transport ICEs replaced with hydrogen-based fuel cell vehicles in the 2040s. An almost complete switch out of the current ICE fleet to EVs is modelled by 2050.  These trends have implications for the automotive manufacturing sector in South Africa, a significant employer, together with opportunities for local battery production.

By 2050, the South African models illustrate that demand for electricity for transport in public passenger, private passenger and freight transport applications grows exponentially from ~3TWh to 60+ TWh. In the ESRG’s model, transport constitutes ~15-20% of total power demand across the economy (350-400TWh) by 2050.

Finally, a switch to low / no emissions fuels is anticipated for shipping (primarily ammonia-based) and aviation. In this study we focus on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), given its close ties to Secunda.