NBI Modelling

The National Business Initiative (NBI)’s study “Climate Pathways project for a Just Transition in South Africa”, in partnership with BUSA and BCG consulting, explores options for decarbonisation towards achieving net zero in South Africa by means of a just transition, using a simulation model developed in Excel.

The NBI has released reports on net zero opportunities for a number of individual sectors, including the petrochemical and chemicals sectors, together with an integrated report consolidating findings at an economy-wide level. While the focus of this work is on achieving net zero emissions in 2050, there are pathways within the NBI petrochemicals study which also appear to be potentially Paris-aligned.

The NBI petrochemicals Just Transitions Project scenarios considered for this study are the “disruptive” pathway and the “gas at scale” pathway, as the ‘extend coal’ pathway is deemed as unrealistic with Sasol’s commitment to net-zero by 2050.

  • The “disruptive” pathway (which ‘leapfrogs’ gas) results in 0.6-1GT CO2e cumulative emissions by 2050.
  • The “gas at scale” pathway assumes the uptake of gas at scale as a ‘transitional’ fuel, before a full transition.  Cumulative emissions by 2050 are 1-1.2GT CO2e.

The NBI reports provide a wealth of sector-level analysis.  However, it’s not always clear the extent to which the analysis is included in an integrated modelling framework.  In this modelling section, the focus is on insights which appear to come from integrated modelling.