Introduction

This project emerged from conversation between the funder and the Meridian Economics¹ team late in 2021. It was incubated through a series of short grants, whose outputs included a briefing note reflecting on whether appropriate analytical resources were available to support just transition decision making in South Africa.

What might these additional resources and perspectives look like? The note argued that a focus on the following is required:

• bringing additional lenses to the decarbonisation challenge, beyond techno-economic;
• incorporating an appreciation of systemic starting points;
• understanding tipping points, leverage points, lock-in processes and path dependency;
• understanding the developmental and justice aspects, implications, risks and opportunities;
• the current decade;
• regional and international developments and connectivity; and
• building optionality and resilience in the face of uncertainty.

This project experiments with approaches that respond to these requirements, aiming to contribute a different type of analysis to those that form the mainstay of the South African decarbonisation analytical suite. The project focuses on petrochemicals, liquid fuels and chemicals, a relatively understudied (relative to the power sector) yet significant area for South Africa, from both a carbon and development perspective. It takes as the entry point Sasol’s large emitting assets, the Secunda and Sasolburg, facilities, and their value chains.

1. The project was authored by a Meridian team of Emily Tyler, Brett Cohen, Celeste Renaud and Lonwabo Mgoduso, and funded by the European Climate Foundation.