Transitioning SA's Petrochemical Value Chain

Shift

‘Shift’ strategies relate to transferring travel from higher-emitting to lower-emitting modes, often known as modal shift. Strategies include systems planning to support use of different transport modes, design of roadways, facilitation and support of vehicle sharing, and multimodal navigation and payment apps.

The South African transport sector faces a number of challenges in supporting ‘shift’ strategies, notably inefficient and aging public transport and infrastructure, low use of rail for freight, and safety concerns linked to various transport modes. The current functioning of rail networks is of particular concern (Read more by clicking below on “Freight to Rail). With South African ports running at substandard productivity, large investment is required to improve infrastructure, technology and regulation of ports to create a more integrated transport system.

Due to varying input assumptions, South Africa’s Paris-aligned decarbonisation modelling studies tend to differ in terms of what they reveal around transport demand and modal shifts. For example, in terms of private passenger transport: the ESRG observes an overall growth in private passenger transport demand relative to today’s baseline, whereas the NBI sees a ~3% decline due to a relatively larger shift towards public transport options including electric buses and minibus taxis – the number of public transport vehicles doubles by 2050¹. The shift towards public transport in the NBI’s modelling study appears to be associated with urban densification along particular transport ‘corridors’, but it is not clear how these components are ultimately linked in the modelling framework.

¹ It is worth noting that a slight increase in private passenger ICEV transport is observed by the studies until 2030 due to economic growth assumptions – after which the predominance of ICEVs transport declines.